Annual Forecast! Ming-Chi Kuo Reveals Apple's Vision Series and AI Glasses—This is What's Truly Worth Waiting For!

Today, renowned analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released his latest product roadmap forecast for Apple's Vision series and AI glasses (2025-2028), emphasizing that Apple's first smart glasses are expected to be released in the second quarter of 2027.

Core Points:

The article details Apple's product roadmap and key details for its head-mounted devices (including the Vision series and smart glasses) from 2025 to 2028, with a particular highlight on the release date of its first smart glasses.

Product Strategy & Release Timeline: Apple views head-mounted devices as the next major trend in consumer electronics. Its product line includes three Vision series products (XR headsets) and four smart glasses products. Notably, Apple's first smart glasses, the "Ray-Ban-like smart glasses" mentioned in the article, are expected to be released in Q2 2027, earlier than the smart glasses with displays and the newly designed Vision Pro.

Vision Series (XR Headsets):

• • Vision Pro M5 Version (Mass production in Q3 2025):

• • Upgrades: Processor upgrade (from M2 to M5), other specifications remain unchanged.

• • Positioning: A niche product aimed at maintaining market share, developing the ecosystem, clearing component inventory, and exploring applications for XR headsets.

• • All-New Vision Air (Mass production in Q3 2027):

• • Key Features: A completely new form factor with a significant weight reduction (over 40% lighter than Vision Pro), equipped with Apple's latest flagship iPhone processor.

• • Price: Significantly lower.

• • Significance: A key product for Apple's attempt to bring the Vision Pro to a broader market.

• • All-New Vision Pro 2nd Gen (Mass production in H2 2028):

• • Optimizations: Further design optimization, lighter, lower price, and equipped with a Mac-level processor.

Smart Glasses Series:

• • Ray-Ban-like Smart Glasses / Apple's First AI Glasses (Mass production in Q2 2027):

• • Highlights: The focal product of Kuo's article, with an estimated shipment of 3-5 million units or more in 2027, poised to become the first Apple head-mounted device to achieve mass shipment.

• • Functions: No display, operated primarily through voice control and gesture recognition. Core functions include audio playback, camera, video recording, and AI environmental awareness.

• • Potential: May replace some functions of TWS (True Wireless Stereo) earbuds and smartphone cameras, with significant near-term growth potential. Defined as "AI Glasses," highlighting the importance of its AI features.

• • Smart Glasses with Display (Mass production in H2 2028):

• • Features: Equipped with display functionality (LCoS with waveguide, supporting color display).

• • Core: AI functionality is crucial for its success. There is another variant in development, but with low visibility.

Paused/Canceled Projects:

• • A smart glasses model originally scheduled for mass production in Q2 2026 (codename "Display-enabled Smart Glasses (Variant 2)") was paused in Q4 2024 and is currently undergoing re-evaluation and specification adjustments.
• • Another smart glasses model that required a connection to an iPhone for display content (codename "Tethered AR Glasses") has been canceled due to a lack of competitiveness (e.g., being too heavy).

Commentary:

• • Early AI Glasses Layout Highlights Strategic Focus: Apple's first AI glasses will be released in Q2 2027, ahead of the all-new Vision Pro (Q3 2027). This indicates that Apple sees AI glasses as an earlier and more promising market entry point in its head-mounted device strategy than full-fledged XR headsets, reinforcing the judgment that smart glasses, not full-featured XR headsets, will drive the next wave of consumer electronics.

• • The "AI Glasses" Naming Implication: Explicitly calling the "Ray-Ban-like smart glasses" "AI Glasses" strongly suggests this product will be deeply integrated with AI, making it a highly intelligent assistive device in users' daily lives. The display-less design, combined with core functions like audio, camera, video recording, and AI environmental awareness, indicates Apple is attempting to redefine personal computing and interaction through AI, potentially supplementing or even replacing traditional smartphone use cases.

• • Gradual and Diversified Penetration: Apple's approach to the head-mounted device market appears cautious and methodical. It is testing the waters in the high-end market with the Vision Pro (M2 and M5 versions) to gain experience and develop its ecosystem. Then, in 2027, it will enter different market segments with "AI Glasses" (a lightweight, everyday smart assistive device) and the "all-new Vision Pro" (popularizing the high-end XR experience). This strategy helps to gradually educate the market, lower the entry barrier for users, and ultimately achieve mass adoption.

• • Tech and Ecosystem Advantages, with Software and AI as Core Challenges: The article affirms Apple's strong advantages in hardware development and ecosystem integration. However, it also clearly states that "AI-driven operating systems and software" are its main challenge. This means hardware is just the foundation; the true core competency lies in building a powerful, user-friendly, AI-driven software experience. For "AI Glasses," success will highly depend on the intelligence and responsiveness of the AI and its ability to seamlessly integrate into users' daily lives.

• • Price and Weight are Key to Adoption: The emphasis on "significantly lighter" and "significantly lower price" for the "all-new Vision Pro," along with the lightweight "Ray-Ban-like" design of the "AI Glasses," shows that Apple is well aware that weight and price are the biggest hurdles to the mass adoption of head-mounted devices. Solving these pain points through technological innovation and cost optimization is a key strategy for Apple to achieve mass shipment.

• • Market Opportunity and Competition: The article mentions that other brands will enter the market before Apple launches its smart glasses with displays, but these early products will likely remain niche. This reflects Apple's consistent "latecomer advantage" strategy. At the same time, Apple's entry is expected to push the total shipment of the smart glasses market to over 10 million units, demonstrating its significant influence on market development.

Summary:

Ming-Chi Kuo's latest forecast provides a clearer blueprint for Apple's head-mounted device development. Apple's focus is gradually shifting from the high-performance, high-cost Vision Pro to the more lightweight and accessible "AI Glasses," which it plans to launch first in Q2 2027, aiming for mass market penetration in the coming years. While hardware and the ecosystem are its inherent strengths, the development of AI-driven software and operating systems will be its core challenge and the key determinant of whether it can successfully define the next era of consumer electronics.

Reference: https://mingchikuo.craft.me/b4ueOLIjxf2wPG